According to Moore''s Law, the processing power of computer chips will double approximately every 18 months. We all know what that has led to in the past few years. We started with very basic computers, and each year brought new technology, each year taking giant steps forward. If we compare today''s computers with those that we used 10 years ago, we can''t even imagine how we ever got by with those oldies. But as we laugh at the processing speed of those ancient computers we''re looking forward, dreaming of supercomputers, computers that will be millions of times faster than our current ones. If you take Moore''s Law for truth, every 18 months we would double our computer''s processor speed, which means that if we take that 10 year old processor as 1, our speed nowadays is about 128 (I remember working on an XT that didn''t even pass 10mhz, and I see computer''s being advertised with more than 1000mhz now, so the law of Moore seems to be correct so far). Our speed 10 years further down the road will be about 8000 times the base speed. In 20 years it will be 500.000 times the base speed. In 30 years it will be 32 million times the base speed. 32 million times base speed. And that''s just our processor. Imagine the advancement in graphics, storage, memory etc. Imagine the kind of world we will live in in the not too distant future. Imagine a world where robots will become a real possibility. Imagine a world where nanotechnology will allow us to create tiny machines that can be send straight into our own bodies, destroying disease cells. Imagine computers so tiny that we''ll have a hard time finding them with our best current microscopes. Imagine a world where our army uses high technology gear to fight off our enemies. Imagine human beings with all sorts of implants, becoming somewhat of a future cyborg. Imagine a world like that, predicted by some to come about in the not too distant future. Then... imagine the possibilities for the game industry. Should we keep trying to improve little bits on what we have, or should we instead open our minds and prepare for the future? No longer creating games based on what we know, but creating games based on what we don''t know? Design not for the systems that we currently own (monitor, tower, mouse, keyboard) but for something different altogether (virtual glasses, sound commands, thought commands)? What will the future bring? What will we do with it? What technologies are you following closely, expecting new advancements and giant breakthroughs in the next few years?

That has ALWAYS been the attitude I have taken, and I find I am in the minority. However, if you look at many of the landmark or milestone games out there, you''ll see that their creators adopted this attitude. This is indeed why they became milestone games.

The key is to look not at game related development articles, which in fact are mostly adaptations of what has already been done in games, but to look at the academic research community to see what is still in the development and research stages and in general, requires high processing capabilities.

Some of the things in the research community that have not made it to the game community yet in full force, but probably will, are:

1) Drainage basin erosion simulation
2) Atmospheric simulation
3) Deductive knowledgebases
4) Belief systems
5) Planning agents

I agree with ya... The future looks awesome... I just wish I would be in all the years to come... Hopefully we will have the technology to fend off the treats to our civilization before we are destoryed. Scientists say that our top 3 most concerns are;

1) Celetial Bodies
2) Our own enviorment
3) Over population

I hope I am alive when we have super cannons to blast meotors out of the sky and have star ships like Andromeda (if anyone watches that show... I love that show... lol)

Alex Ford
PointSoft EA Co., Ltd.
http://www.pointsoftonline.com

I''m as enthusiastic as the next programmer about processing power in the future, but might I note that the advances in computing technology so far have been the result of more closely packing transistors onto smaller and smaller silicon chips. There is a finite physical limit which will eventually be reached at which time other alternatives will need to be explore, which also may not yield equally rapid growth rates. Some examples include quantum and optical computers which use the spin on subatomic particles as variables rather than simply the presence or absence of electric charge (I''m not yet clear on the optical processors).

Also, advancements in computing methodology may accelerate that rate. In other words, we don''t know how fast exactly computers will be 10 years from now, but we do know that they will be beyond our wildest imaginations. Consider that every generation has seen unexpected and unpredicted innovations and inventions - perhaps we shall see revolutions in input methodology as Silvermyst suggests (vocal input), perhaps texture interfaces and true holograms will become feasible and viable. Who knows?

On the other hand, to continue enthusing, one area that has seen much academic development but little commercial/video game application is text-to-speech conversion (TTS) and natural language synthesis. Imagine a machine that could synthesize any text into sound, given the text string, vocal "paramters" and language pronounciation rules. Imagine the worlds that could be created - speech at minute memory cost, coupled with algorithms that generate unique statements and expressions (perhaps even AI/personality-based) in reaction to occurences within the game world. Imagine such a machine available next year.

The technology is with us. We need not look too far into the future; the high stakes nature of the video game industry has made every title a break or bust affair, killing off true innovation in the pursuit of the bottom line. The shelves are lined with copycat material which push no technical or artistic boundaries, even though the "high (mind) work" has already been done .

Yes, I''m a dreamer, but out of dreams come masterpieces.

My take on this is in the "the man not the machine" direction. You always say that science has always done unbelievable things (true), and that we cannot even imagine what it will create in the future. I remember Arthur C Clarke some 50 years ago stating boldly that by 2000 computers will definetely out-smart humans. The only thing thing we cannot even imagine about the future of science is that one day it will stop discovering useful things like it always used to. Now that will be a surprise


Game related tech I look forward to : Enough bandwidth and low lag to allow unrestricted real-time audio and video transfer between players. Software that can change your voice and your appearance (recorded real-time by microphone and camera) to that of your avatar (keeping tones, expresions, look direction, etc.). 3D gear that doesnt burn your eyes into the brains (maybe this already works, dunno)


Ok, thats about enough rant outta me, flame me, I deserve it

Yeah, although there are points in history where there wasn''t as much progress for a long period of time like the Middle Ages